> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://onex-3.gitbook.io/onex-document/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://onex-3.gitbook.io/onex-document/coin/risk-scenarios.md).

# Risk scenarios

## Scenario 1: Mass ICO Dump (Worst Case)

**Scenario:** All ICO holders attempt to sell everything on Day 1.

**Reality with ONEx defenses:**

* Only 10% unlocks in Month 1 — not 100%
* 70% of that goes to IEV — never touches AMM
* Only 30% is tradeable — further throttled by WDTS and ZKPS
* ADTL taxes take 10–15% from early short-term sellers
* Price impact limits prevent large single transactions
* ABR passive and active buys absorb sell pressure
* Concentrated liquidity (10× effective depth) minimises per-unit price impact

**Actual Impact:** Maximum price drop **2–3%**. Recovery time 24–48 hours. No cascade crash possible.

***

## Scenario 2: Coordinated Whale Attack

**Scenario:** 5 Mega Whales each coordinate to dump simultaneously.

* Each classified as Mega Whale → 2% daily sell cap
* Max 5,000 ONEx per single transaction; 60-minute cooldown
* AADE detects correlated sell pattern → pre-emptively raises DSPA to Level 2
* Anti-split detection catches wallet-splitting; ZKPS hides retail sells from bots
* Cost to attackers: \~20–25% total tax. Revenue < taxes paid.

**Result: ATTACK IS ECONOMICALLY IRRATIONAL.**

***

## Scenario 3: Market-Wide Crash (BTC -40%)

* DSPA detects rising SPI → Level 2 response activates
* Level 1 Circuit Breaker at -7%: 5-min contract pause + ABR buys
* VVC reduces vesting to 0.50× — less new supply entering
* PFDP activates floor defense at $0.80
* **ONEx drops 10–15% vs 30–50% for average altcoin**
* Floor holds. Token burns during crisis permanently reduce supply.

***

## Scenario 4: MEV / Bot Attack

* Max 3% slippage enforced — insufficient for sandwich profit
* ADTL: bot pays 15% tax (held < 24 hours)
* ZKPS hides large order intent — bot cannot profile position size
* Cooldown prevents rapid-fire execution

**Net result:** Bot buy + sell tax ≈ 30%. Sandwich profit potential ≈ 0.5–1%. Net loss per attack: **\~-29%**.

**BOTS CANNOT PROFITABLY ATTACK ONEx.**

***

## Scenario 5: Flash Loan Oracle Attack

* All oracles use TWAP — immune to single-block manipulation
* 4-of-4 (or 3-of-4) oracle consensus required to trigger circuit breaker
* AADE detects large borrow on lending protocols → pre-alerts OBCB
* Concentrated liquidity requires massive capital to meaningfully move price
* Even if one oracle temporarily manipulated: 3-of-4 consensus prevents response

**Result: Attack fails — and costs the attacker flash loan fees.**

***

## Scenario 6: Governance Attack

**Scenario:** Large holder accumulates 30% of staked supply to push malicious governance proposal.

* Quadratic voting: 30% of tokens = √(0.30 × total) votes — proportionally much less power
* Single-wallet voting cap: 5% of total votes maximum
* 72–168 hour timelock on all approved changes
* Community alert system: any proposal affecting defense parameters triggers public notification
* 3-of-9 multisig veto: security council can veto any proposal within 24 hours of passage

**Result: Governance attack is mathematically blocked at multiple levels.**

***

## Scenario 7: Bridge Exploit

**Scenario:** Attacker exploits bridge vulnerability to mint unbacked ONEx Coins on L2.

* Multi-prover ZK verification: exploiting requires breaking both SNARK and STARK simultaneously
* Maximum single bridge transaction: $500,000 — limits blast radius
* 24-hour withdrawal delay for >$50K: exploit must sustain 24 hours undetected
* Bridge anomaly detection: unusual pattern flagged within 30 seconds
* Emergency pause: 3-of-5 Bridge Guardian multisig can halt bridge in minutes
* Bridge insurance fund: $316,000 available for immediate user compensation

**Result: Attack is detected and halted within minutes. Blast radius is capped at $500K.**

***

## Summary: The Economic Cost of Attacking ONEx

| Attack Type            | Required Capital  | Cost to Attacker             | Expected Profit         |
| ---------------------- | ----------------- | ---------------------------- | ----------------------- |
| Mass dump              | All ICO tokens    | 15–25% ADTL tax              | Severely negative       |
| Whale coordinated dump | 10M+ ONEx         | 20–25% tax + whale throttles | Economically irrational |
| MEV sandwich           | Flash loan        | \~30% combined cost          | \~-29% net loss         |
| Flash loan oracle      | 100M+ USDT        | Flash loan fees              | 0 (TWAP immune)         |
| Governance attack      | 30% of supply     | Quadratic voting caps impact | Veto blocks proposal    |
| Bridge exploit         | Technical exploit | Detected in <30s, $500K cap  | Insufficient return     |